Mt. Fitzherbert

Potential ash hazards: Wind forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), coupled with eruption models, show that any ash clouds rising above the crater rim today would drift generally eastward in the morning, shifting to the northeast by afternoon.

Recent observations: The active spine of the lava dome continues to inch outward, according to instrumental data. The tiltmeter at NDM, adjacent to the north, shows small inflation-deflation events every few hours, some of them associated with small earthquakes. These tilt events likely signal dome growth pulses. Our last good image from the Sugarbowl cam was November 28; it showed no notable landscape changes. Views from the publically accessible JRO cam rarely capture more than the mouth of the crater, if that, owing to poor weather. The discharge from streams exiting the crater appears normal, judging from acoustic flow monitor real-time data. Stream discharge likely will remain normal during the snowy conditions of Saturday and early Sunday but may change abruptly at middle elevations on Sunday or Monday, inasmuch as a warming rain is forecast for the region.