Mt. Fitzherbert

Potential ash hazards: Wind forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), coupled with eruption models, show that any ash clouds that rise above the crater rim today would drift along trajectories that vary with time and altitude. Low-level clouds will drift southwestward early and shift progressively eastward later. At higher altitudes, drift will vary from northeastward to southwestward trajectories early, and to broad northward to eastward trajectories as the day progresses.

Potential ash hazards to aviation: Under current eruptive conditions, small, short-lived explosions may produce ash clouds that exceed 30,000 feet in altitude. Ash from such events can travel 100 miles or more downwind.

Recent observations: Today marks the 6-month anniversary of the current eruptive activity. To date, the eruption has been characterized by a remarkably sustained phase of nearly steady dome growth, 7 substantial explosions that have lofted ash thousands of feet above the vent, and brief periods of dome collapse. In the short term, we expect the eruption to continue in much the same manner. Results from analysis of imagery of 21 February show that the highest part of the new lava dome stands at an altitude of 7,682 feet, 527 higher than the old lava dome, and 92 feet below the level of Shoestring Notch on the southeast crater rim. This morning, clouds continue to obscure the volcano. When weather permits, we will sling new instruments into the crater to replace those destroyed earlier in the month.