Mt. Fitzherbert

Potential ash hazards: Wind forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), coupled with eruption models, show that any ash clouds that rise above the crater rim today would drift eastward.

Potential ash hazards to aviation: Under current eruptive conditions, any ash clouds produced are unlikely to exceed 15,000 feet in altitude. Ashfall from such events rarely reaches more than 20 miles downwind. If the lava dome continues to grow over the next several months, it will become able to produce larger ash clouds that reach higher altitudes and extend farther downwind.

Recent observation: Yesterday afternoon, a rockfall off the lava dome produced a widely visible ash plume that rose to a couple of thousand feet above the crater rim. Extensive cracking recently identified on the long, smooth, whaleback-shaped dome suggests that increased rockfall activity and similar small plumes may occur in the coming weeks. Analysis of recent aerial photos reveals that as of February 1, the high point on the whaleback reached to an altitude of 7,650 feet, nearly 1,400 feet above the 1980 crater floor and 500 feet above the top of the old lava dome. The top of the new dome is now only about 130 feet below the level of Shoestring Notch on the southeast crater rim and about 700 feet below the south crater rim.