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2005 February 16

USGS Update 2005-Feb-16 09:40

Potential ash hazards: Wind forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), coupled with eruption models, show that any ash clouds that rise above the crater rim today would drift southwestward early in the day, and follow a westward trajectory later.

Potential ash hazards to aviation: Under current eruptive conditions, any ash clouds produced are unlikely to exceed 15,000 feet in altitude. Ashfall from such events rarely reaches more than 20 miles downwind. If the lava dome continues to grow over the next several months, it will become able to produce larger ash clouds that reach higher altitudes and extend farther downwind.

Recent observations: Despite blustery winds around the volcano, conditions in the crater are calm. Crews have completed a thermal-imaging flight, and are now deploying temporary “spyder” packages (with GPS units) to track movement of the crater glacier. If all goes well, they will also retrieve the GPS package that sits on the new lava dome, modify it slightly, and redeploy it as a new station on the welt area between the new and old lava domes. If time and conditions permit, they may also remotely retrieve new rock samples.