Mt. Fitzherbert

Views taken on 2005-Feb-10

Potential ash hazards: Wind forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), coupled with eruption models, show that any ash clouds that rise above the crater rim today would have trajectories that vary with time and altitude. Early in the day, low-level ash clouds would drift slightly northwestward to mostly southward, but drift southeastward at higher altitudes. As the day progresses, low-level clouds would drift westward. At higher altitudes, clouds could drift slightly westward but would drift predominantly east-southeastward.

Potential ash hazards to aviation: Under current eruptive conditions, any ash clouds produced are unlikely to exceed 15,000 feet in altitude. Ashfall from such events rarely reaches more than 20 miles downwind. If the lava dome continues to grow over the next several months, it will become able to produce larger ash clouds that reach higher altitudes and extend farther downwind.

Recent observations: The volcano is clearly visible today and emitting a small plume of steam and perhaps minor amounts of ash. The GPS instrument on the new lava dome continues to move at a consistent rate of 6 meters per day. The movement is mostly southeastward, with an upward component of about one meter per day. Tomorrow, crews will deploy two temporary “spyder” packages (with GPS units) to track movement of the glacier, and will conduct a thermal-imaging flight.