Mt. Fitzherbert

Growth of the new lava dome inside the crater of Mount St. Helens continues, and is accompanied by intermittent emissions of steam and ash. As long as this eruption is in progress, episodic changes in the level of activity can occur over days, weeks, or even months. Increase in the intensity of eruption could occur suddenly or with very little warning and may include explosive events that produce hazardous conditions within several miles of the volcano. Small lahars (volcanic debris flows) could suddenly descend the Toutle River valley if triggered by heavy rain or by interaction of hot rocks with snow or glacier ice. These lahars pose a negligible hazard below the Sediment Retention Structure (SRS) but could pose a hazard to people along the river channel upstream of the SRS. At this time of year, it is not unusual for rivers draining the volcano to contain high concentrations of sediment that turn the water murky.

Although considered less likely at this time, the current eruptive activity could evolve into a more explosive phase that affects areas farther from the volcano and sends significant ash thousands of feet above the crater where it could be a hazard to aircraft and to downwind communities.

Wind forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), coupled with eruption models, show that ash clouds that rise high above the crater rim today would drift eastward to northeastward.

Seismicity remains at a low level compared to that observed early in this unrest. The current seismicity is consistent with a continuing, slow rise of magma driving uplift of the crater floor and feeding a surface extrusion of lava. The overall low rates of seismicity and gas emission suggest that the lava reaching the surface is gas poor, thereby reducing the probability of highly explosive eruptions in the near term.

Visual observations yesterday confirm the continued growth of the new lava dome. Comparison of yesterday's photographs with those of 10 November shows evidence of at least several meters of upward growth. A technique using laser-ranging binoculars from the helicopter to measure the position of points on the new dome was tested successfully yesterday. Repeat measurements should provide good control on future rates of change. Data from yesterday's gas-sensing flight are still being evaluated, but suggest that gas emissions are slightly higher than those earlier in the week.